The Crystal Cycle and Co-evolution of Demand and Technology: a “History-friendly” Model of the TFT-LCD Industry
نویسنده
چکیده
The paper aims at building a history-friendly model which replicates the history of the Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) industry focusing the crystal cycle and co-evolution of demand, technology and industrial structure. The most interesting characteristic of the TFT-LCD industry is the cyclical behavior of the price and investments. The model is distinctive compared to existing system dynamics models addressing industrial cycles in two points: 1) endogenous demand, technological change and entries are incorporated 2) industrial cycle affects evolution of demand and technology as well as are caused by the change of demand and technology, that is, we consider industrial cycle as a medium of co-evolution of demand and technology. The simulation results show that it can successfully replicate the crystal cycle, and investmentproduction delay, price delay and endogenous change of demand are factors of the crystal cycle. Moreover, we can see positive feedback between demand expansion and technological advance through medium of the cycle
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